A new poll from CBS News and YouGov shows the Senate race between Bill Nelson and Rick Scott is tied, while Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis are statistically tied in the Governor’s race. 

The Senate race is especially important because it could determine which party controls the upper chamber. The CBS News/YouGov survey shows incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Governor Rick Scott tied at 46 percent. The new poll reflects what other surveys have found – that this race is dead even. Gov. Scott has spent nearly $40 million of his own money in the race, while Nelson has received considerable help from third party groups that generally support Democrats. The survey found that voters give Scott high marks for his response to the most recent hurricane that hit the Florida Panhandle. 

In the Governor’s race, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leads former Congressman Ron DeSantis 47 percent to 46 percent – making it a statistical tie. Gillum has lead in nearly every public poll released since he won the Democratic primary in August. But there are some key indicators in this poll which shows the race may be breaking for DeSantis. While both candidates have secured their respective party base, independents appears to be moving toward DeSantis. He leads with independents 51 percent to 38 percent. 

This is also the first poll conducted since news broke that Gillum was further implicated in an ongoing FBI investigation into corruption at Tallahassee City Hall. Documents show that Gillum accepted a free ticket to the Broadway show “Hamilton” from an undercover FBI agent, while other documents show the same federal agent paid a $4,000 food tab at a Gillum fundraiser. 

The poll surveyed 990 likely voters and included those who voted in the 2016 Presidential election, which is generally a different, more diversified electorate than a midterm election. The poll estimates a +3 Democratic advantage over Republicans, an electorate not seen in Florida in at least twenty years. The Democratic Party advantage isn’t reflected in current vote-by-mail or early voting figures. As of Saturday, Republicans had a +3 advantage over Democrats. If that trend continues, Republicans could be in much better shape than the CBS News/YouGov poll indicates. 

David Bishop is a native Floridian, husband and father. During his 30 year career, David has been a journalist, political operative and communications consultant.