Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded southwards in the area of the upper edge of the trend channel and subsequently fell back into the area of the moving average of the last 200 days (EMA200). Bitcoin dominance also missed the breakout and is trending bearish this week.
Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin is resisting the slide under the EMA200
BTC rate: USD 39,167 (Previous week: USD 40,259) Resistances / Targets: USD 38,537, USD 39,240, USD 40,585, USD 41,321, USD 43,030, USD 44,147, USD 44,878, USD 47,070, USD 48,222, USD 50,305 / USD 51,307, USD 53,005 $ 54,077, $ 55,817, $ 57,998, $ 59,470, $ 61,771, $ 64,896Supports: $ 36,643, $ 34,899, $ 33,335, $ 32,718, $ 31,603, $ 31,010, $ 30,000, $ 29,300, $ 28,795, $ 27,563, $ 26,404 USD, 23,887 USD, 22,222 USD, 21,892 USD, 19,884 USD,
Price analysis based on the value pair BTC / USD on Coinbase
Bitcoin once again failed to leave the upward sideways range that began May 19 and failed to meet the forecast minimum target of USD 43,030. Yesterday, Tuesday, August 3, the crypto reserve currency fell again below the moving average of the last 200 days (EMA200) (blue) and could again test the support at USD 36,643 in the coming trading days. A fall back below this support level could push the BTC rate again towards the lower edge of the trend channel.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The cops ran out of breath again at the crucial moment. The Bitcoin price rose to USD 42,623 before the seller’s camp struck back. The current reversal movement caused the Bitcoin price to correct to currently USD 39,167 in the last 4 trading days. Now it is up to the bull camp to defend the cross resistance from the EMA200 and the horizontal resistance line at USD 38,537 per day’s closing price. If Bitcoin can assert itself above this resistance level and subsequently also breaks the resistance at USD 39,240, a jump back to USD 40,585 should be planned.
If this price mark is broken and the USD 41,321 regained, the bulls will again target the previous week’s high of USD 42,623. If a breakthrough to the important target price of 43,030 USD succeeds, the buyer side has to prove itself again. If this price level can also be overcome sustainably, the pink resistance zone between USD 44,147 and USD 44,878 will come into focus again. The MA200 (green) can be found here. Once again a directional decision is made here. A breakthrough of USD 44,878 increases the likelihood of a subsequent rise to the trailing edge at USD 47,070. A direct jump to USD 48,222 would also be conceivable.
The way back over the 50,000 USD
In the medium term, the BTC rate is likely to regain the psychologically important mark of USD 50,000 and rise to at least USD 50,327. A relapse to USD 47,070 would be unproblematic, the target is then still USD 51,307. Only when the Bitcoin price can form a daily closing price above USD 51,307 is a subsequent rise in the orange resistance area between USD 53,005 and USD 54,077 conceivable. If the bulls remain on the trigger, the next target price at USD 55,817 comes into focus. Looking ahead, Bitcoin could target the maximum price target at USD 57,998. In the long term, the BTC rate should even rise to the high of 59,470 USD. A sustained stabilization above this price mark is required in order to achieve the next target price at USD 61,771. If the crypto market finds its way back to its former strength, an increase to the all-time high of USD 64,896 would be conceivable in the coming months. A sustainable overcoming of the all-time high activates price targets above USD 70,000.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The bears prevented the trend channel breakout at the last minute. The task now is to keep the Bitcoin rate below USD 40,585. Already on the EMA200 (blue) at 38,537 USD there will be a preliminary decision on Wednesday 4th August. A clear ricochet should lead Bitcoin to the support level at USD 36,643. If the price falls below this mark, the probability of a correction rises to USD 34,899. If the buy side does not come back into the market here, a fallback to USD 33,355 is to be expected. Is currently the trend channel lower edge and just below the 61 Fibonacci retracement. A dynamic break in this zone should lead to an expansion of the downward momentum. The BTC rate should then break down to USD 31,010 or even USD 30,000. Once again, the bears will do everything in their power to send the price of the crypto reserve currency back to the lows at USD 29,300 and USD 28,795.
If the development low is also dynamically undershot, a correction expansion to the next support level at USD 27,563 is conceivable. A sustained countermovement is only to be expected in the area of the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 26,404. Since the lower Bollinger band also runs here, a clear counter-defense from the bull camp must be planned. If, on the other hand, there is no sustained countermovement up to at least USD 30,000, a correction towards USD 23,887 should also be planned in the future. If the selling pressure remains high, a direct relapse into the support area between USD 22,222 and USD 21,892 cannot be ruled out. Thus, a retest of the breakout level at USD 19,884 would be within reach. As long as Bitcoin remains above USD 36,443, a renewed rise back to the top of the trend channel is more likely.
Bitcoin dominance: ricochet off resistance zone
Bitcoin dominance shown on the basis of values from Cryptocap
Bitcoin dominance missed an increase in the key price target of 50.01 percent in the last seven trading days. Already at the lower edge of the orange resistance area at 49.25 percent, the BTC dominance turned south and subsequently fell back below the moving averages EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange). The dominance of the crypto reserve currency is currently again in the area of the blue support zone at 46.39 percent.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
The trend reversal ended the bullish tendency of Bitcoin dominance for the time being. The BTC dominance has to stabilize in the coming trading days above the cross resistance of horizontal support and green upward trend line at 45.71 percent in order to preserve the chance of a new attack in the direction of 50.01 percent. The first step is to overcome the resistance at 47.03 percent. If the bulls manage a reversal back above the EMA20, the 48.67 percent target again comes into focus. The supertrend can currently be found here in the daily chart. If the BTC dominance can sustainably overcome the 48.67 percent subsequently, the first goal is again the previous week’s high of 49.25 percentage points. A breakout above this resistance level is accompanied by a jump over the upper edge of the downtrend channel.
Then the psychologically significant mark at 50.01 percent comes back into focus. Only if this price level is broken sustainably, there will be new opportunities for growth up to the EMA200 (blue) at 51.47 percent. If this sliding resistance can also be overcome, a walk-through of up to 52.19 percent or even 53.16 percentage points should be planned. At 53.01 percent there is also the MA200 (green), which should also have a price-limiting effect. Only when the 53.16 percent is pulverized is a subsequent increase to the horizontal pink resistance line at 54.23 percent conceivable. If the 54.23 percent is broken in the medium term, the area will come back into focus by 55.30 percent. In perspective, if the strength continues, the BTC dominance could also reach the maximum targets of 57.17 percent and 58.03 percent.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
The drop below the 47.03 percent and subsequently also below the Supertrend and the EMA50 is likely to become bearish in the short term. This brings the cross support from horizontal support and green upward trend line at 45.71 percent into focus as the first target price. If the BTC dominance continues to trend weakly and the price falls back below the cross support at 45.71 percent, an acceleration of the downward dynamic towards 44.42 percent is conceivable. If this price level also breaks through, a relapse in the direction of the blue horizontal support line at 43.18 percent should be planned. If the Bitcoin dominance does not turn north here either, the correction will expand to at least 42.27 percent.
A relapse to the monthly low of 41.22 percent cannot be ruled out. If the BTC dominance tends further south in the coming weeks, a relapse to the 40 percent mark cannot be ruled out in the medium term. If the annual low of 39.66 percent is subsequently abandoned, a correction expansion into the green support zone between 39.21 percent and 37.67 percent is also possible. For the time being, this area should be named as the maximum bearish price target. As long as the BTC dominance can stabilize above 45.71 percent, a relapse towards 40 percent is still a long way off.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.84 euros.