Scott Nelson

The Axios/Survey Monkey poll hasn’t been the most reliable – earning a “D-” rating from FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings but if a series of United States Senate surveys released Tuesday are accurate, the Democrats promised “Blue Wave” may be more like a Florida afternoon thundershower – here one minute, gone the next.

In polling conducted in 13 states with Senate races on the ballot in November, Democrats lose three seats, while picking up two. If this polling is accurate, Republican hold the Senate. That would be a crushing blow to the Democrats who want the 2018 election to be a proxy vote on President Trump.

One of the seats the Republicans would gain is Florida, where Governor Rick Scott leads incumbent Bill Nelson by 3 points among registered voters. This poll mirrors the most recent public surveys showing a tight race but with Scott in the lead.

The Axios/Survey Monkey poll surveyed 1,080 voters from June 11 to July 2, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

The Florida showdown is still just under four months away but Democrats – both in Florida and Washington – have become increasingly concerned with Nelson’s lackluster campaign. In addition, a recent poll surveying Florida Hispanics shows Governor Scott is better known and liked than Senator Nelson.

Nelson has recently been empowered by the controversy over the separation of children from parents trying to illegally enter the country.

Television advertising will play a major role in this campaign – not just from both campaigns – but from third party advocacy groups.

A liberal advocacy, pro-Nelson group launched a new ad Tuesday geared toward Florida’s most reliable voting bloc – seniors.

Not to be outdone, a conservative organization has released a commercial hitting Nelson over his federal budget voters during his nearly two decades in the Senate.

Expect plenty more of these ads – millions of dollars more in the next 17 weeks, especially as this race remains a tight battle up to election day.

David Bishop is a native Floridian, husband and father. During his 30 year career, David has been a journalist, political operative and communications consultant.