Graham and DeSantis lead

If the primary elections for governor were held today, Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Gwen Graham would be their parties nominees – according to a new Mason-Dixon poll released Friday morning. The undecided vote in each race, however, makes both races unpredictable.

On the GOP side, Congressman DeSantis leads Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam 41-29 – a 12% lead. But 28% of Republican voters have yet to decide which of the two candidates they’ll support. DeSantis is leading most of the demographics surveyed – men, women and white Republicans. Hispanics are about evenly split between Putnam and DeSantis (32-31%)

Former Congresswoman Gwen Graham leads the field of five Democrats with 27 percent of the vote. She’s followed by former Miami Beach Mayor Phillip Levine with 18%, businessman Jeff Greene at 12%, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum at 10% and Orlando businessman Chris King with 7%. One in four Democrats are undecided in the primary for Governor. Graham leads with men (22-21% over Levine), women, white and Hispanic Democrats. Gilum leads with African-Americans.

A Warning Sign for Republicans

If Graham wins her primary, the Mason-Dixon poll suggests Democrats may have their best chance at winning the Governor’s seat in twenty years. Graham also has the highest favorable rating of all candidates, Democrat and Republican. In addition, the polling numbers suggests she is benefitting from being the only woman in the race. The pollster does caution, however, the general election results are difficult to predict at this point.

The poll was conducted between July 23 and July 25 with 625 likely Florida voters. The survey also included an over-sampling of 500 likely Democratic voters and 500 likely Republican voters. The margin of error is 4.5%.

Mason-Dixon is considered one of the more reputable polling companies with a “B+” grade from FiveThirtyEight Pollster Ratings