A new Gravis Marketing poll released Sunday night confirms what other recent surveys have found – Bill Nelson has a within the margin lead over Rick Scott in the Senate race, while Andrew Gillum has a one-point lead over Ron DeSantis. 

The Gravis Marketing poll shows Sen. Nelson with a two-point lead over Gov. Scott, 48% to 46%. That’s within the margin of error +/-3.6%. 

The Governor’s race is even closer and confirms what most recent polls show — that Tallahassee Mayor Gillum leads former Congressman DeSantis by just one-point, 47% to 46%. With a margin of error +/-3.6%, it’s anyone’s race to win this Tuesday. 

In the Cabinet races, Republicans appear poised to clean sweep the three statewide races. 

In the Attorney General’s race, former circuit judge and federal prosecutor Ashley Moody has the largest margin in a statewide race, leading state legislator and trial attorney Sean Shaw by nine percent, 49% to 40%. 

In the race for Chief Financial Officer, current CFO Jimmy Patronis leads former state Senator Jeremy Ring, but narrowly – 43% to 42%. Patronis was appointed by Gov. Scott upon the resignation of Jeff Atwater. Patronis is running for a complete term.

And in the race for Agriculture Commissioner, Republican state Representative Matt Caldwell leads Democrat lobbyist Nikki Fried, 45% to 42%.

The Gravis Marketing poll estimates a +2 Republican lead over Democrats and independents and also suggests independents will account for around 1/3rd of the 2018 midterm vote. The poll breakdown is 34% Republicans, 33% independents/other parties and 32% Democrats. 

Those turnout estimates don’t mirror the turnout in vote-by-mail and early voting totals. With more than 4.8 million ballots cast, Republicans narrowly lead in turnout 40.8% to Democrats 40.2% while no party affiliation account for 18.3% of the vote.