One week before election day and Democrat gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum has a six point lead over Republican Ron DeSantis, 49 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a new University of North Florida poll.
The poll shows Gillum with a 25 percent lead among independents voters, which is the difference in the race.
A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday showed just the opposite, with DeSantis winning the independent vote.
In the Senate race, Rick Scott appears headed for another tight election, which has defined his political career. The UNF poll shows Senator Bill Nelson leading Governor Scott by just one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The poll shows Nelson leading with independent voters.
“Almost 3 million people have already voted, and Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race. The senate race with Nelson and Scott is neck and neck, and the few remaining undecided voters are going to play a pivotal role in the outcome,” said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. “The big leads that both Gillum and Nelson have among NPA/Others highlights the importance of having the right amount of independents in your poll. Currently less than 18 percent of ballots cast have been by NPA/Others, we estimate that number will be 19 percent by November 6th.”
The University of North Florida poll also surveyed two of the statewide cabinet races. It shows Republican Ashley Moody leading Democrat Sean Shaw in the race for Attorney General 47 percent to 40 percent.
In the Agriculture Commissioner race, Democrat Nikki Fried leads Republican Matt Caldwell 43 percent to 41 percent.
“Moody appears to have a comfortable lead in the Attorney General race, but the Agricultural Commission race is much tighter. Fried has a small lead, but there are a lot of undecided voters in both of the lower information cabinet races,” Binder stated.
If the polling in those two races is accurate, Florida will have elected two women to serve on the Cabinet for the first time in state history.
The poll was conducted 10/23-10/26 and surveyed 1051 likely Florida voters. The survey forecast a +1 Republican turnout advantage. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.