Depending on what poll you want to believe, the race for governor is either statistically tied or Democrat Andrew Gillum appears headed for victory. Two of the last four polls – the New York Times and the University of North Florida – show Gillum leading Ron DeSantis by 5 to 6 points. While two other new polls – CBS News/YouGov and Suffolk University/USA Today show Gillum with just a one point lead.
One thing the last four polls agree on, the U.S. Senate race between Bill Nelson and Rick Scott is tight.
The Suffolk poll is the newest, released Tuesday. It shows Gillum with less than a one point lead over DeSantis 45 percent to 44.2 percent. It doesn’t get much tighter.
In the Senate race, Sen. Nelson leads Gov. Scott 44.6 percent to 43.2 percent. That’s a 1.4 percent lead for Nelson.
Past performance gives the Suffolk University poll some added weight. It correctly forecast in 2016 that Donald Trump would win Florida. It was the only major pollster to correctly suggest Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton.
While there seems to be a poll a day leading up to election day, Floridians are voting. More than 3 million residents have already cast their ballots. If early voting is any indication, overall turnout could be more inline with the 2016 presidential election not the 2014 midterm election. As of Tuesday, Republicans led Democrats by two percent in turnout. Independent voters are underperforming, which could make next Tuesday a base election.
As President Trump, former President Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders head to Florida in the next 5 days, they’ll all go to locations meant to turnout their respective base. Both Sanders and Trump are in Florida Wednesday. Sanders will rally the college age vote for Gillum at the University of Central Florida while the President goes to the GOP vote rich area of Fort Myers. When Obama comes to Florida, he’ll campaign in a prominent African-American community in Miami. Trump comes back to the state later this week to campaign in Pensacola, another GOP stronghold.
There’s a simple saying in politics – it’s all about the turnout. It’s really a basic election model – get more of your supporters to the polls than your opponent and you win Tuesday’s election. That strategy seems to be increasingly likely with just six days to go.